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Ian Hitting The Sunshine State With Wind, Waves & Water

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  • Ian Hitting The Sunshine State With Wind, Waves & Water





    Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 24
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
    1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

    Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
    critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
    Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
    experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of
    about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution
    Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000
    ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold
    of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this
    advisory.







    Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next
    few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the
    track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line
    with the latest consensus aids. One important change is that Ian
    is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula
    (due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast
    forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force
    winds on the east coast of Florida. This necessitates the issuance
    of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida. While
    significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the
    Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a
    trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United
    States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with
    more baroclinic forcing. Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued
    from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of
    coastal South Carolina. The new intensity forecast is raised from
    the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.


    Key Messages:

    1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground
    level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
    southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
    including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
    follow any evacuation orders in effect.

    2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern
    coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force
    winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian.
    Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed
    to completion.

    3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
    Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
    and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
    flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
    considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
    southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
    prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across
    central Florida.

    4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida
    coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.
    Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to
    portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane
    Watch has been issued for that area.












    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 28/1500Z 26.3N 82.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
    12H 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
    24H 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
    36H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
    48H 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
    60H 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
    72H 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED


    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 24
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
    1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE...
    ...IAN WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
    THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOON...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...26.3N 82.5W
    ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
    ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the mouth of the St.
    Mary's River to the mouth of the South Santee River, South Carolina.

    A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Sebastian Inlet, Florida
    northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.

    A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Flagler/Volusia County
    Line to the South Santee River.

    A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Little
    River Inlet, South Carolina.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
    * Dry Tortugas
    * Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line

    A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
    * Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
    * Tampa Bay
    * Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
    * Dry Tortugas
    * Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
    * St. Johns River

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
    * Indian Pass to the Anclote River
    * All of the Florida Keys
    * Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
    * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Little River Inlet
    * Flamingo to Chokoloskee
    * Lake Okeechobee
    * Florida Bay
    * Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands

    A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
    * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
    Pine Key
    * Florida Bay

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
    * Lake Okeechobee

    A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
    inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
    the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
    see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
    available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
    Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
    to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
    other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
    instructions from local officials.

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
    property should be rushed to completion.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.

    A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
    threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
    coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located
    near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 82.5 West. Ian is moving toward
    the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a
    reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn
    toward the northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
    of Ian is expected to move onshore within the hurricane warning area
    in a few hours, move over central Florida tonight and Thursday
    morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian
    is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the
    northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late
    Friday.

    Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
    Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west
    coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane. Weakening is expected
    after landfall, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it
    moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches
    the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late
    Friday.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
    (280 km). A Weatherflow station on Sanibel Island recently reported
    sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to 75 mph
    (121 km/h).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
    under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
    web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

    STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
    normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
    moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
    following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
    the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

    * Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
    * Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft
    * Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
    * Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft
    * Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
    ft
    * Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
    * Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the
    Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
    * Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River including St.
    Johns River...3-5 ft
    * St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
    * East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
    * Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
    * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
    * North of South Santee River to Surf City NC...1-3 ft

    The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
    the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
    large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
    of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
    distances. For information specific to your area, please see
    products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
    office.

    WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
    moves onshore. Hurricane conditions will begin along the west
    coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area shortly, with
    tropical storm conditions ongoing.

    Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
    Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting overnight. Hurricane
    conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Thursday
    through late Friday.

    Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
    Florida Keys, and will continue this morning. Tropical storm
    conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the east
    coast currently, and should spread up northward through the Georgia
    and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm
    conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next
    few hours.

    RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
    rainfall:

    * Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
    up to 12 inches.
    * Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
    maxima up to 24 inches.
    * Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
    local maxima of 12 inches.

    Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
    flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread
    considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
    portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
    Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
    week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
    is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
    U.S. later this week through the weekend.

    TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight, especially
    across east central Florida.

    SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
    of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
    west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
    Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
    swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
    conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

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