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Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of
about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution
Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000
ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold
of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this
advisory.
Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next
few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the
track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line
with the latest consensus aids. One important change is that Ian
is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula
(due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast
forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force
winds on the east coast of Florida. This necessitates the issuance
of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida. While
significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the
Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a
trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United
States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with
more baroclinic forcing. Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued
from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of
coastal South Carolina. The new intensity forecast is raised from
the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
follow any evacuation orders in effect.
2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern
coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force
winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian.
Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed
to completion.
3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across
central Florida.
4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida
coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.
Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to
portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued for that area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 26.3N 82.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE...
...IAN WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 82.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the mouth of the St.
Mary's River to the mouth of the South Santee River, South Carolina.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Sebastian Inlet, Florida
northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Flagler/Volusia County
Line to the South Santee River.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Little
River Inlet, South Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Little River Inlet
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big
Pine Key
* Florida Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 82.5 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a
reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn
toward the northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Ian is expected to move onshore within the hurricane warning area
in a few hours, move over central Florida tonight and Thursday
morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian
is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the
northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late
Friday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west
coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane. Weakening is expected
after landfall, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it
moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches
the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late
Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A Weatherflow station on Sanibel Island recently reported
sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to 75 mph
(121 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the
Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River including St.
Johns River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* North of South Santee River to Surf City NC...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
moves onshore. Hurricane conditions will begin along the west
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area shortly, with
tropical storm conditions ongoing.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting overnight. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Thursday
through late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the east
coast currently, and should spread up northward through the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next
few hours.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
U.S. later this week through the weekend.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight, especially
across east central Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
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