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All attention remains for thursday through sunday as the storm
system continues to drop southward putting it just off the ca/or
coast friday morning and near sf bay friday night. The low will
continue to track to the southeast near the nv/az border by sunday
afternoon. Latest guidance that has come in shows amazingly little
change from previous model runs. In fact both gfs and ecmwf ensemble
spread is small with the position of the low for the duration.
Although some details still need to be worked out...look for rainfall
to spread north to south on thursday into friday with more
than half an inch possible for urban spots and more than an inch for
higher elevation locations. 700 mb temps will drop as the low tracks
through our area and bottom out between minus 16 and 18c friday night
and 500 mb level heights will be down to 529dm. Regardless of which
solution you look at...we are going to be in much colder than normal
weather (and even locally record-breaking) both friday night and
saturday night. What remains a bigger question is the timing of any
showers in association with the coldest temperatures. Some scenarios
bring rain across sf bay through friday then have precip ending by
the evening with just a few minor showers overnight. Other solutions
keep more precip near metro areas through all of friday night. both
ideas would drop snow levels close to sea level...however only the
second solution would produce measurable snowfall for cities around
sf bay. Would definitely expect some winter weather advisories and
possibly warnings to be issued as this gets closer. Finally...
Although convective parameters are not the best...certainly cannot
rule out thunder or even some small hail. Will issue an sps later
this afternoon.
system continues to drop southward putting it just off the ca/or
coast friday morning and near sf bay friday night. The low will
continue to track to the southeast near the nv/az border by sunday
afternoon. Latest guidance that has come in shows amazingly little
change from previous model runs. In fact both gfs and ecmwf ensemble
spread is small with the position of the low for the duration.
Although some details still need to be worked out...look for rainfall
to spread north to south on thursday into friday with more
than half an inch possible for urban spots and more than an inch for
higher elevation locations. 700 mb temps will drop as the low tracks
through our area and bottom out between minus 16 and 18c friday night
and 500 mb level heights will be down to 529dm. Regardless of which
solution you look at...we are going to be in much colder than normal
weather (and even locally record-breaking) both friday night and
saturday night. What remains a bigger question is the timing of any
showers in association with the coldest temperatures. Some scenarios
bring rain across sf bay through friday then have precip ending by
the evening with just a few minor showers overnight. Other solutions
keep more precip near metro areas through all of friday night. both
ideas would drop snow levels close to sea level...however only the
second solution would produce measurable snowfall for cities around
sf bay. Would definitely expect some winter weather advisories and
possibly warnings to be issued as this gets closer. Finally...
Although convective parameters are not the best...certainly cannot
rule out thunder or even some small hail. Will issue an sps later
this afternoon.
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